Soft 15 vs dealer 3: hit, stand, or double down?
Hit. Soft 15 against a dealer 3 is played the same way whether the dealer hits or stands on soft 17.
- Dealer hits soft 17Hit
- Dealer stands on soft 17Hit
- Hit: take one more card.
Why
A soft hand cannot bust on one card, because the ace drops from 11 to 1 if it has to. A soft 15 is too weak to stand on against a dealer 3, so take a card to improve it.
Soft 15 means an ace is counted as 11 without busting. With two cards it is an ace and a 4.
The numbers
- A dealer 3 busts about 38% of the time when the dealer hits soft 17 and 37% when the dealer stands on soft 17.
- A soft hand cannot bust on one card, because the ace drops from 11 to 1 if it has to.
| Dealer rule | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dealer hits soft 17 | 13% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 38% |
| Dealer stands on soft 17 | 13% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 37% |
| Play | Dealer hits soft 17 | Dealer stands on soft 17 |
|---|---|---|
| Hit | +0.03best | +0.03best |
| Double down | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stand | -0.24 | -0.25 |
| Surrender (where offered) | -0.50 | -0.50 |
Scoring: a win scores +1, a loss -1, a tie 0, and a doubled hand counts twice. Surrender scores -0.50. Hit means take a card, then play on as well as possible. These are averages over many hands from the strategy audit behind the app, rounded and approximate. Any single hand can go either way.
Rules assumed
- 4, 6, or 8 decks (the chart is the same for all three)
- The dealer checks for blackjack when showing a 10 or an ace, before you act
- Double down is allowed on any first two cards
- Double after split is allowed
- Late surrender is offered, as your first decision only
- Split up to four hands; split aces get one card each and cannot be resplit
One-deck and two-deck games, tables without surrender, and dealers who do not check for blackjack change some plays. Check your table's rules before relying on any chart.
Both soft 17 rules are shown. The two charts differ on only 6 of 360 hands: see the dealer hits and dealer stands charts. The plays come from the verified 4 to 8 deck tables behind the Blackjack Trainer app (bs_4to8_h17_peek and bs_4to8_s17_peek).
Common questions: Soft 15 vs dealer 3
What is the correct play for soft 15 against a dealer 3?
Hit. This is basic strategy for 4 to 8 decks, and it is the same whether the dealer hits or stands on soft 17.
Does the soft 17 rule change soft 15 against a dealer 3?
No. The play is the same whether the dealer hits or stands on soft 17. Only a handful of hands on the chart change with that rule, and this is not one of them.
Why hit with soft 15 against a dealer 3, and not stand?
A soft hand cannot bust on one card, because the ace drops from 11 to 1 if it has to. A soft 15 is too weak to stand on against a dealer 3, so take a card to improve it. Average result per hand over many hands (a win scores +1, a loss -1): when the dealer hits soft 17, hitting scores +0.03 and standing scores -0.24; when the dealer stands on soft 17, hitting scores +0.03 and standing scores -0.25.
Is doubling down better than a hit here?
No. Basic strategy hits here, because doubling down does worse on average against a dealer 3. Average result per hand over many hands (a win scores +1, a loss -1): when the dealer hits soft 17, hitting scores +0.03 and doubling down scores 0.00; when the dealer stands on soft 17, hitting scores +0.03 and doubling down scores 0.00.
Does the play change if soft 15 has more than two cards?
No. This chart uses only your total and the dealer card, not how many cards made the total. Exact card makeup can shift a few close calls by a fraction of a percent, which is why basic strategy ignores it.
Does basic strategy guarantee a win?
No. It picks the play with the best average result, but any single hand can go either way, and the house keeps a small edge. This site and the Blackjack Trainer app are for practice only.